Crystal Ball: Outlook 2025

What’s at Stake in 2025 for Customs, Export Control, and Sanctions Professionals?

We recently held a comprehensive webinar, 2025 Updates for Customs, Export Control, and Sanctions Professionals, where we covered key developments that will impact businesses in the coming year.

As we approach 2025, the regulatory landscape for customs, export control, and sanctions professionals is undergoing significant changes. Whether you’re managing customs procedures, handling sanctions compliance, or navigating complex export control regulations, the decisions made in 2025 will have lasting effects on your business.

Our one-hour session offered a high-level, multi-topic, and multi-jurisdictional overview of the critical updates you need to know to stay ahead of these regulatory shifts.

Recording, Slides & Supportive Material

For those who attended the webinar or are looking for further insights, we’ve made the support bundle available for download. The bundle includes:

• Recording of the Webinar: Watch the session at your convenience and revisit the key points.

• Slides from the Webinar: Access the presentation slides for a detailed reference.

• Guides, Documents, FAQs, and Advisory Documents: All the materials referred to during the session.

• One-Month Premium Membership to our Trade Intelligence Service: Get ongoing insights and updates tailored to your needs.

Watch The Intro

Feedback from the Webinar:

Here is a list of the feedback received from the webinar chat:

1. Positive Feedback on Presentation:

   • "Very informative, thank you" - Elizabeth

   • "Thank you - interesting and well presented as always" - Debbie

   • "Thanks Arne, great webinar" - Michael

   • "Thank you, great webinar" - Ya-Ru

   • "Thank you for this webinar. Important topics to focus on." - Jacques

   • "Excellent, It should have been longer" - John

   • "Thank you very much for all information!" - Justyna

   • "Thank you for this webinar. Important topics to focus on." - Jacques

   • "It was very valuable" - Gigi

     
     

2. Specific Praise for Arne's Presentation Style:

   • "Thank you as well Arne, as always: Informative, pragmatic and a sense of humor. It lets me digest everything more easily." - Thomas

   • "Thank you Arne - Very entertaining and informative as usual!" - Duncan

   • "Thanks Arnie - that was excellent - we'll catch up separately." - Simon

   • "Great Webinar, thank you!" - Arvinder

     
     

3. Appreciation for Clarity:

   • "Great summaries" - Louie

   • "Really helpful, thank you Arne" - Beth

   • "A very good wrap-up of what is coming towards us in the very near future." - Max

     
     

How to Access the Support Bundle

To download the recording, slides, and support materials, simply visit our Support Bundle page and scroll to the “Support Bundle” section.

By taking advantage of this resource, you’ll be well-equipped to navigate the complex regulatory environment in 2025 and beyond.

What We Covered in the Webinar

In the webinar, we provided a bird’s-eye view of the most important updates for 2025. The session was designed to condense essential information into a concise format, making it ideal for customs, export control, and sanctions professionals who must quickly grasp the key changes that will shape their roles and businesses in the coming year. Here are some of the updates we discussed.

1. New Computerized Transit System (NCTS) Phase 5

NCTS5 final state will introduce 6 changes that result in either a process change or changes in the completion of the transit declaration.  NCTS Phase 5 must be fully implemented in 2025.

2. EU Customs Reform and the Data Hub

The EU Customs reform is currently being evaluated by the co-legislators, with the legislative process anticipated to conclude in 2025. This reform seeks to improve the efficiency and security of the EU's customs procedures. Businesses should remain informed about the key aspects of the reform, including the EU Customs Authority, the EU Customs Data Hub, and the AEO Trust and Check system. These changes will significantly affect trade operations, ensuring better compliance and streamlining processes. To gain a deeper insight into the EU Customs reform, businesses are advised to watch an in-depth video lasting over 50 minutes, which covers the UCC reform and its implications.

3. Expanding Sanctions and Export Control Regimes

The global landscape for sanctions and export control regimes is evolving rapidly. In particular, sanctions against certain countries, such as Russia, remain a top priority. The EU, U.S. and the UK and its international partners have imposed stringent sanctions to restrict Russia's access to Western technology and financial systems. For customs and export professionals, ensuring compliance with these measures will be critical to avoid the risk of hefty fines or criminal prosecution. Sanctions are becoming more complex, with new designations, broadening sectors of restriction, and enhanced monitoring systems.

4. Dual-Use Goods and Export Controls

Dual-use items (goods, software, or technology that can be used for civilian and military purposes) will continue to be tightly regulated. The EU and other jurisdictions maintain strict export control measures to prevent these items from being used in ways that could threaten international peace and security. Professionals must stay informed on the latest controls, as the scope of what constitutes a dual-use item is regularly updated.

With the increasing emphasis on controlling sensitive technologies and preventing the proliferation of weapons, export control professionals will need to bolster their knowledge and compliance efforts to avoid penalties and reputational damage.

5. Trump Tariff II and Escalation of Trade Tensions

A significant event expected to shake up international trade is the Trump Tariff II. These tariffs are expected to come into force in 2025 and will likely majorly impact global trade relations. The tariffs are expected to affect a wide range of goods, with industries acThe Trump Tariff II is a significant event expected to shake up international tradebracing for the effects. Some experts predict that these tariffs could escalate trade tensions and even trigger trade wars between key global economies.

Professionals in customs and export control will need to understand how these tariffs impact their specific sectors and devise strategies to mitigate the effects. Ensuring compliance with tariffs, navigating new import/export barriers, and adjusting trade routes will be crucial tasks in the coming year.

6. The End of the CBAM Transitional Period

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is another critical development, with the transitional period set to end on December 31, 2025. The CBAM, which aims to level the playing field between European and non-European producers by imposing carbon taxes on imported goods, will require businesses to report carbon emissions linked to their products starting in 2026.

This means that businesses and professionals in the trade, logistics, and customs sectors must ensure they are ready for the full implementation of CBAM. The transitional period ends in 2025, and organizations must prepare to collect and report detailed emissions' data for their imports. Failure to comply could lead to significant fines or market access issues.

Speaking of CBAM, there are three trainings that I recommend to you:

• EU CBAM Fundamentals (Training): Unlock expertise in the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) with our live online 4-hour course. Master CBAM’s essentials, compliance steps, and critical terms. Perfect for customs managers, import/export pros, and more. Join us online—book now!

  
  

• CBAM Report Filing (Workshop): Join us for this four-hour virtual online workshop on successfully filing the CBAM report to the EU Commission. This is a workshop for EU importers of CBAM goods and their indirect representatives or agents filling on their behalf.

  
  

• Effective CBAM Supplier Coms (Workshop): Join us for this four-hour hands-on virtual online workshop. Design the perfect communication and information strategy to convince your overseas suppliers to provide accurate, complete and timely CO2e data for your CBAM report.

  
  

7. The EUDR and Its Upcoming Impact

Alongside CBAM, the EU Due Diligence Regulation (EUDR) will also come into force, or at the very least, demand significant preparations from businesses in 2025. The EUDR requires companies to demonstrate that they are not contributing to deforestation or human rights abuses in their supply chains. The regulation will likely require companies to conduct thorough supply chain audits, implement traceability systems, and develop detailed due diligence processes. For professionals in customs, export control, and sanctions, this will mean a significant shift in how they handle imports and exports. It will also increase the demand for systems that can track the origin of goods and the sustainability of the supply chain.

Top Tip: Get the EUDR Support Bundle - a one-hour webinar + slides and support material on EUDR. Great to get you started on preparing for EUDR in 2025..

Other issues we were discussing during the webinar.

AEO & C-TPAT We discussed the latest updates to the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) and Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) programs, which are crucial for securing international supply chains. 2025 will bring changes to compliance requirements and security standards, and we explained how businesses can leverage these programs to facilitate smoother trade while meeting international standards.

Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) We reviewed updates to anti-dumping duties, focusing on how changes to these regulations will impact trade with specific countries. With trade disputes continuing to evolve, understanding how anti-dumping measures are applied in 2025 will help businesses avoid penalties and ensure compliance with new tariff regimes.

Classification & Tariff Updates We covered changes in product classification rules and tariff structures, providing insights into how these updates might affect businesses' customs duties. Customs professionals will need to stay on top of these changes to ensure that product classifications are accurate and that tariffs are properly calculated.

Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) is set to progress being implmented throughout 2025, requiring businesses to assess and address human rights and environmental risks in their supply chains. We discussed the impact of these regulations on sourcing and compliance, and the steps businesses must take to align with the new due diligence requirements.

Customs Declaration Changes We highlighted updates to customs declaration processes, including new documentation and automation requirements. These changes are designed to streamline customs procedures but will require businesses to adapt their processes to avoid delays or penalties.

Additional Key Topics Covered We also touched on a range of other critical topics, including:

• EUDR: The EU’s new due diligence regulations and their impact on global trade.

• Export Controls: Updates on export control policies, particularly for dual-use goods and sensitive technologies.

• Forced Labour: New regulations tackling forced labour in global supply chains.

• Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): Updates on key FTAs and their implications for trade relationships.

• Rules of Origin: Changes to rules of origin and their effect on customs compliance and free trade agreements.

• Sanctions: The evolving landscape of sanctions and how they will impact international trade.

• Trade with Northern Ireland: Updates on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland post-Brexit.

• Transit & NCTS: The new Computerized Transit System (NCTS) Phase 5, which launches in 2025, and its potential impact on transit procedures.

• Trump Tariffs: Developments in the U.S. tariff landscape, including the impact of “Trump Tariff II”.

• Value Added Tax (VAT): Changes to VAT regulations, particularly in cross-border transactions.

  
  

Conclusion: Navigating the Risks and Opportunities in 2025

The regulatory landscape for customs, export control, and sanctions professionals is evolving rapidly, and 2025 promises to bring substantial changes. Staying informed and proactive is key to maintaining compliance and optimizing your operations in the coming year.

If you haven't already, be sure to download the webinar materials and stay ahead of the curve in 2025.

In 2025, customs, export control, and sanctions professionals will face a crucial year. The environment is evolving quickly, with the introduction of new systems such as NCTS Phase 5 and the conclusion of the CBAM transitional period. Professionals need to get ready for changes in trade regulations, stricter export controls, and fresh responsibilities concerning carbon emissions and supply chain due diligence. I, along with Customs Manager Ltd, will support you every step of the way!

With the potential for escalating trade tensions, especially with the introduction of new tariffs and sanctions, navigating these challenges will require agility, diligence, and a keen understanding of global trade dynamics. For those who stay ahead of these changes, 2025 will present an opportunity to ensure compliance, enhance operational efficiency, and mitigate risks.

As a customs or sanctions professional, your role in managing these complexities will be more crucial than ever. The decisions you make in 2025 could define your success in the future. Are you prepared for what lies ahead?

2025 Customs Update (Training)

To further explore the 2025 customs, export control, and sanctions updates, consider joining our 4-hour intensive deep-dive sessions. These sessions will allow us to address your questions and delve into the changes in even more detail.

2025 EU & UK Customs Update (Training)

12 Dec 2024, 09:00 – 13:00 GMT

09 Jan 2025, 09:00 – 13:00 GMT

Virtual Training Event

Dive into the latest customs changes for 2025. Join us for an update online training where you'll unravel the 2025 updates of customs law with industry experts.

2025 Export Control & Sanctions Update (Training)

Details to come

Virtual Training Event

Explore the most recent updates in export control and sanctions for 2025. Participate in our online training session to gain insights into the changes in export control and sanctions law for 2025, led by industry experts.

Four-hour trainings

Runs two times: 15.01. / 19.02

Come with a Certificate of Completion

Run by Arne Mielken

Visit https://www.customsmanager.org/events to find out more

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