Prepare for potential new tariffs & stricter compliance measures under a second Trump administration from 2025. Join our webinar on 12 December 2024 to discover the import and export policies of Trump II.
What Questions I Will Answer in this blog
What trade measures might be expanded under Trump’s return?
How can non-U.S. companies adapt to heightened customs scrutiny?
Which practical strategies reduce tariff costs for importers?
Introduction
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, U.S. trade policy is poised for a recalibration that may impact businesses globally. For importers, exporters, and customs professionals, staying ahead means anticipating the changes, understanding the implications, and preparing strategies. I’ll share insights on what could be next under Trump’s trade policy, exploring both threats and opportunities and offering practical solutions for adapting to the shifting landscape.
“In turbulent times, those who prepare and adapt will not only survive—they’ll thrive.” – Arne Mielken, Managing Director of Customs Manager Ltd
Abbreviations I Use in this Blog
For ease of understanding, here are a few abbreviations I’ll use in this blog:
FTA: Free Trade Agreement—agreements between countries to reduce trade barriers.
USCBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection—responsible for overseeing U.S. border policies and customs enforcement.
NAFTA/USMCA: North American Free Trade Agreement / U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement—trade deals facilitating tariff-free trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
What New Trade Measures Could a Second Trump Administration Implement?
Trump’s first presidency redefined U.S. trade through what are now known as the “Trump tariffs,” especially on imports from China, steel, aluminum, and sectors like solar.
His firm stance on “America First” may become even more intense, expanding tariffs on more sectors, such as technology, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, potentially sparking new compliance challenges and costs. Let’s unpack these potential measures.
Enhanced Tariffs: Targeted Sector Implications
Given Trump’s focus on reducing dependency on foreign goods, specific high-profile sectors like technology, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals may be in his crosshairs. Heightened tariffs could impact companies across the globe that rely on exporting to the U.S., and increased tariff costs might ripple throughout supply chains.
Companies manufacturing overseas and exporting to the U.S. should closely monitor any announcements in these industries and adjust sourcing or manufacturing to reduce dependency on U.S.-targeted sectors.
Customs Scrutiny and Compliance Measures
A second Trump presidency might also mean intensified U.S. Customs and Border Protection enforcement, as officials enforce compliance more strictly. The message is clear: Non-U.S. businesses will need rigorous compliance processes, especially for product classifications and origin declarations. Failing to comply could lead to delays, penalties, or even bans from the U.S. market. This renewed focus on integrity and precision in customs paperwork makes detailed, strategic compliance vital to your operations.
Shifts in Trade Preferences and Exemptions
Under the Trump administration’s earlier tariffs, certain exemptions applied, especially for products seen as critical to U.S. economic stability. A second term might tighten these conditions, narrowing exempt eligibility and focusing more on domestic benefits. For example, importers may need to prove that their products contribute positively to the U.S. market and do not threaten domestic industries. This shift calls for careful documentation and enhanced risk awareness, as businesses make the case for any tariff relief requests.
READ OUR BLOG ENTRY - US Tariff Policy explained: Section 232, 301 & 201
Strategies to Thrive Under Trump’s Renewed Tariffs
With these anticipated shifts, U.S. and non-U.S. companies should start to prepare (AGAIN!). While tariffs and compliance may increase complexity, there are ways to adapt strategically and maintain a competitive edge in the U.S. market. Here are a few key strategies to mitigate tariff costs and manage compliance effectively.
Reassess Your Supply Chain for Cost Savings
Strategic sourcing is one of the most powerful ways to mitigate tariff impacts. Consider exploring materials or components from countries with favourable trade agreements with the U.S., such as those in an FTA. Restructuring your supply chain could lower overall costs as you identify areas with potential tariff reductions. My team and I can assist in assessing your supply chain, finding cost-saving opportunities, and maintaining profitability in your U.S. exports.
Maximize Duty Drawback Programs
A duty drawback can be a cost-effective solution for companies that export a significant portion of their U.S. imports. Duty drawback allows businesses to recover a portion of paid tariffs on imports that are eventually re-exported. This can offer considerable savings, especially for companies with high-volume exports. By engaging with an experienced customs consultant, you can optimise your processes to ensure that every eligible dollar is reclaimed.
Implement Tariff Engineering
Another valuable approach is tariff engineering—structuring product designs, changing components, or altering the country of origin to reclassify goods into lower tariff categories. This strategy requires a deep understanding of U.S. customs classifications and a detailed analysis of your product lineup. I can guide you through tariff engineering to help achieve lower tariff rates while ensuring compliance with U.S. regulations. Schedule a call!
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Strengthen Compliance and Documentation
With the renewed focus on compliance under a potential Trump administration, meticulous accuracy in customs documentation and risk management processes is crucial. Be sure to check classifications, ensure documentation is up to date, and implement quality control processes to meet higher standards. Consider working with customs professionals or compliance specialists who can provide training and support to keep your team updated on the latest requirements.
🌍 Exclusive Webinar: Navigating U.S. Trade Under a Potential Trump II Administration
Date: Thursday, 12 December 2024
Time: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM BST | 5:00 PM - 6:00 PM CET | 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST
Join us to unpack what a second Trump administration could mean for global trade, especially for non-U.S. and U.S.-based companies aiming to import and export efficiently under intensified trade policies. With Trump’s renewed focus on U.S. self-sufficiency, we’ll dive into anticipated expansions of tariffs—particularly Section 301 on China—and their potential application to broader sectors and allied nations, such as the EU and Mexico. Learn the essentials of navigating Sections 232, 201, and evolving trade restrictions, while discovering actionable strategies to minimize costs and maintain compliance.
What to expect:
Policy Insights: Understand how Trump's tariffs on China and others may evolve, with a focus on sectors likely to face heightened restrictions.
Strategic Guidance: Get expert advice on how to navigate these complex tariffs and exemptions.
Best Practices: Equip your team with practical tools to mitigate trade risk and maintain business resilience.
Whether you’re actively exporting to the U.S. or importing from the U.S., this webinar is your roadmap to succeeding under potential new trade conditions. Secure your spot today!
Why Work with Me on Trump U.S. Tariffs?
With over 20 years of expertise in U.S. customs and border policy, I offer specialised guidance to U.S. and non-U.S. companies looking to navigate complex U.S. trade requirements for both import and export. My approach combines practical, experience-based insights with a commitment to service and adaptability, helping your business expand or streamline its U.S. operations. My experience working with leading American trade management software providers and holding a Certificate in Transatlantic Management from the University of Washington allows me to bring unique perspectives and proven solutions to my clients.
My Takeaway
The return of Trump tariffs presents challenges but also offers opportunities for those willing to adapt. Prepare early, understand the risks, and seize every chance to improve compliance and reduce costs. Trump’s trade policy will reward adaptability, integrity, and foresight—traits that non-U.S. companies can leverage to succeed in the changing U.S. market landscape.
Expert Recommendations
Stay Informed on Policy Changes: Keep up with evolving U.S. trade policies and anticipate new tariffs.
Review Supply Chains Regularly: Explore sourcing options within favorable trade regions to mitigate tariff exposure.
Engage in Duty Drawback Programs: Maximise savings on re-exported goods to offset tariff costs.
Strengthen Compliance Efforts: Implement rigorous classification and documentation processes for customs compliance.
Explore Tariff Engineering Options: Seek opportunities to reclassify goods strategically.
Fancy a Call?
Need strategic guidance? I offer comprehensive support for navigating U.S. trade policy shifts. Book a free consultation, and let’s develop a plan to keep your operations compliant and cost-effective under a second Trump administration. Together, we can assess your needs and uncover practical solutions for the U.S. market. Book here.
Sources That I Base Our Information on This Blog
This blog is grounded in the latest trade policy analyses, tariff updates, and customs regulations issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and other leading regulatory sources.
Where to Find More Information on U.S. Tariffs
For deeper insights on U.S. tariffs and strategies, subscribe to The Customs Watch. It offers members timely updates on U.S. trade developments, compliance tools, and industry news to keep them informed and prepared. See also:
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Learn With Me
Alongside my team, I offer extensive training on this topic. Visit www.customsmanager.org/events to explore our course offerings and book one of our public sessions.
About the Author
Key Achievements: I, Arne Mielken, am a customs, export control, and sanctions expert with over 20 years of experience. I’ve held leadership roles at Big 4 consultancy firms, global trade management tech companies, and international trade and export associations in the UK and EU. I am honoured to be a Freeman of the City of London and a Liveryman of the Worshipful Company of World Traders. I also belong to several professional associations, including the Customs Practitioners Group (CPG), the UK’s Association for International Trade (ACITA), the Europäischen Forum für Außenwirtschaft e.V. (EFA), and the Office de développement par l’Automatisation et la Simplification du Commerce Extérieur (ODASCE).
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Learn more about me here and connect with me on LinkedIn. I also manage a channel with free tips and advice on customs, export controls, and sanctions.
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Disclaimer
The information provided in this blog post is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as legal advice. We recommend consulting legal professionals or specialists for compliance requirements specific to your needs. Book a free consultation with our expert at Customs Manager Ltd.